The State Council Information Office2020年10月23Sunday (Friday) morning10We will hold a press conference and invite Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and Spokesperson Wang Chunying to introduce2020Foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data in the first three quarters, and answer reporters' questions。
Information Bureau of The State Council Information Office Shou Xiaoli:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.Welcome to the press conference of The State Council Information Office。Today we are very pleased to invite Ms. Wang Chunying, Deputy Director and Spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, to introduce her to you2020Foreign exchange revenue and expenditure data of the first three quarters, and answer your questions of interest。
First of all, let me introduce Ms. Wang Chunying。
Wang Chunying:
Good morning, everyone!Welcome to today's press conference。Now, let me start with an announcement2020The first three quarters of China's foreign exchange revenue and expenditure, and then answer everyone's questions。
2020Since last year, the global spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused a deep recession in the world economy and increased volatility in international financial markets。China has coordinated the prevention and control of the epidemic with economic and social development, and the domestic economy has steadily recovered, with the momentum of recovery leading the world, which has strongly promoted the balance of international payments and the stability of the foreign exchange market。In general, in the first three quarters, China's cross-border capital flow maintained a stable operation, and the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market continued to be basically balanced。
From the bank's foreign exchange settlement data,2020In the first three quarters, denominated in US dollars, banks settled foreign exchange14663$100 million, foreign exchange sale13901$100 million, trade surplus762Billions of dollars;Denominated in RMB, bank settlement10.25One trillion yuan, foreign exchange sales9.71One trillion yuan, foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus5357亿元。From the data of foreign-related receipt and payment on behalf of banks, the foreign-related income of banks is denominated in US dollars31055$100 million, external payments30681Us $100 million, foreign receipts and payments surplus374Billions of dollars;Denominated in RMB, the bank's foreign income on behalf of customers21.70One trillion yuan, foreign payments21.44A trillion yuan surplus in foreign receipts and payments2600亿元。
2020In the first three quarters, China's foreign exchange revenue and expenditure mainly presented the following characteristics:
First, the overall settlement and sale of foreign exchange by banks showed a surplus, and the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market remained basically balanced。2020In the first three quarters of this year, bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange surplus762Hundreds of millions of dollars。Among them, the first half of the foreign exchange settlement surplus786$100 million, a small deficit in the third quarter24Hundreds of millions of dollars。Taking into account other supply and demand factors such as the net purchase of foreign exchange by overseas institutions in the inter-bank foreign exchange market and the increase of banks' foreign exchange positions, the supply and demand of China's foreign exchange market remained basically balanced in the first three quarters。
Second, cross-border funds generally showed a net inflow, and continued to show a surplus pattern since the second quarter。In the first three quarters, there was a surplus of foreign payments on behalf of banks374$100 million, including a deficit in the first quarter260$100 million, reflecting the impact of the turmoil in international financial markets;4Since the recovery of stability, the second and third quarters of the surplus372$100 million plus a surplus262Hundreds of millions of dollars。
Third, the selling exchange rate has declined, and the domestic and cross-border foreign exchange financing willingness of enterprises has generally been stable and increased。In the first three quarters, the selling rate, which measures the willingness to buy foreign exchange, is the ratio of the customer's foreign exchange purchase from the bank to the customer's foreign exchange expenditure64%Year-on-year decline2.8Percentage point。截至2020年9At the end of the month, the balance of domestic foreign exchange loans of Chinese banks was relatively large2019Year-end rise475Usd 100 million, indicating an overall increase in the relevant foreign exchange financing needs of enterprises;9At the end of the month, the balance of foreign currency financing of cross-border trade such as import overseas payment, usance letter of credit and so on2019The end of the year was basically flat, while imports fell during the same period3%It indicates that the willingness of enterprises to cross-border foreign exchange financing remains relatively stable。
Fourth, the exchange rate is generally stable, and market entities are rational in their willingness to hold foreign exchange。In the first three quarters, the settlement rate, which measures the willingness to settle foreign exchange, is the ratio of the customer's foreign exchange sales to the bank and the customer's foreign exchange income65%Compared with the same period last year, basically flat。截至2020年9At the end of the month, the balance of domestic foreign exchange deposits of enterprises, individuals and other entities increased compared with the end of the previous year354Us $100 million, mainly in the third quarter of growth, in the case of RMB appreciation, reflecting the positive results of market counter-cyclical adjustment。
Fifth, the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased steadily。截至2020年9Balance of foreign exchange reserves at the end of month31426A billion dollars more than2019Year-end rise346Hundreds of millions of dollars。In general, the supply and demand of the domestic foreign exchange market remained basically balanced in the first three quarters, and the change of the foreign exchange reserve balance was mainly affected by exchange rate translation and asset price changes。
That's all I have to tell you2020Main statistics of foreign exchange receipts and expenditures in the first three quarters。
Shou Xiaoli:
Thank you, Deputy Director Wang Chunying。Now, please let your news organization know before you ask your question。
CCTV reporter, China Media Group:
Can you evaluate the situation of foreign exchange revenue and expenditure in the first three quarters of our country？Make a prediction about future trends。谢谢。
Wang Chunying:
Since the beginning of this year, the COVID-19 epidemic has seriously affected global economic and financial stability。The external environment for China's foreign exchange revenue and expenditure is complex and severe。However, with the support of domestic fundamentals, China's balance of payments operation is better than expected, the stability of the RMB exchange rate is better than expected, the rationality of foreign exchange market transactions is better than expected, and the cross-border two-way investment activity is better than expected。From the second half of the year, the stable development of the foreign exchange market has become more stable, and the operation of the main indicators has shown a stable and good trend。To be specific:
First, the balance of payments will remain basically balanced, and foreign exchange reserves will remain stable on the whole。In the first half of the year, our current account was maintained765A surplus of $100 million, accounting forGDPThe ratio of1.2%Continue to maintain a reasonable balance range。From the data released in the third quarter, the import and export scale of goods trade reached a new high。At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic, cross-border service trade expenditure is still declining, and the scale of service trade deficit is still narrowing。Under the influence of these two factors, we believe that the current account of China's international balance of payments can still maintain a basic balance in the third quarter。So in an overall balance of payments situation,9China's foreign exchange reserves were stable at the end of the month3.1trillion-dollar。
Second, the RMB exchange rate has become more flexible and has performed sounder among the world's major currencies。Since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate has risen and fallen, forming a two-way pattern of fluctuations and maintaining relatively high flexibility。The one-year implied volatility of the domestic options market is5%The range of fluctuation between the highest and lowest prices is7.5%Globally, it is a reasonable and moderate range。The other major currencies, the euro, the yen, the pound are all there7%—9%The volatility of the renminbi has been lower in the past for a long time2%And now it is5%, reflecting increased elasticity。In the first three quarters, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar increased slightly2.3%。In the second half of the year, affected by internal and external factors such as the recovery of the domestic economy and the decline of the US dollar index, the domestic trading price returned6.6-6.7The level of。Sideways, the dollar index fell in the first three quarters2.5%The euro rose against the dollar4.5%The yen rose against the dollar2.8%The pound fell3.3%An index of emerging market currencies fell12.2%。In this way, the renminbi is significantly stronger than other emerging market currencies, and its performance compared with that of major developed countries is in the middle。In the future, the relative advantages of domestic economic fundamentals will continue to play a fundamental role in stabilizing the foreign exchange market, but considering the uncertainty and instability of external factors, the RMB exchange rate will still fluctuate around a reasonable and balanced level。
Third, market behavior is more rational, and the supply and demand of foreign exchange continue to show a basic balance。The settlement and sale of foreign exchange transactions this year has such a feature, customers“Buy foreign exchange on high and low”This is a more rational performance of the market, and the awareness of risk control is also increasing。From the perspective of forward and options-related indicators in the foreign exchange market that can reflect exchange rate expectations, exchange rate expectations remain generally stable, and no obvious unilateral expectations have been formed。This will not only help keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at an appropriate and balanced level, but also help balance supply and demand in the foreign exchange market independently。
Fourth, cross-border two-way investment remains active and cross-border capital flows are stable and orderly。From the inflow of foreign capital into the country, the Ministry of Commerce announced this year1-9Scale of foreign direct investment in China in October1033Billion dollars, growth2.5%Growth in the third quarter18%;Foreign Exchange Bureau statistics, this year1-9In October, foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic bonds and stocks to reach1321Billion dollars, growth47%。Look at cross-border capital outflows, outbound direct investment in the first three quarters of this year789$100 million, down slightly from a year earlier2.6%;Domestic subject passage“Hong Kong Stock Connect”Buy Hong Kong stocks4244Hundred million yuan。
Wang Chunying:
Looking forward to the future, with the support of domestic economic, policy, market and other factors, China's foreign exchange market has the conditions to continue to develop steadily。First of all, China's epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery have taken a leading edge in the world, and production, services and consumption have provided very strong support。All these will continue to strengthen confidence and stabilize expectations。Second, China is committed to promoting financial reform and opening up, and it is two-way opening up. Measures to promote trade and investment facilitation are constantly advancing and making continuous efforts to create a good policy environment for the two-way and balanced flow of cross-border capital。At the same time, China is accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international cycles promoting each other, and will promote a high level of opening up to the outside world and further improve the quality of cross-border two-way investment。Third, from the perspective of market conditions, the RMB exchange rate has remained relatively flexible。The exchange rate will further play its role as an automatic stabilizer of macroeconomic and international balance of payments。Meanwhile, the foreign exchange market“Macroprudential and microregulatory”The two-in-one management framework is constantly improving and can better absorb the impact of external shocks。
Of course, the impact of COVID-19 on the world continues, and external destabilizing and uncertain factors still exist。Therefore, we will adhere to the bottom-line thinking, strengthen the monitoring and evaluation of two-way cross-border capital flows, and raise risk awareness。While persisting in the reform and opening up of the foreign exchange sector, we will also enhance our ability to prevent and control risks, and earnestly safeguard the balance of international payments and national economic and financial security。This is in response to your question。谢谢。
Poster journalist:
What is the reason for the rapid appreciation of the RMB recently？Whether the future will accelerate the appreciation？谢谢。
Wang Chunying:
The People's Bank of China also responded to your question some time ago。The recent appreciation of the RMB is mainly supported by economic fundamentals。China has taken the lead in controlling the epidemic and has recovered its economic and social development. The International Monetary Fund predicts that China will be the only major economy to achieve positive economic growth this year。The export situation is good, overseas long-term funds have increased their holdings of RMB assets in an orderly manner, and the RMB exchange rate has appreciated somewhat driven by market supply and demand。Under the managed floating exchange rate system, market supply and demand play a decisive role in the formation of exchange rates。Overall, the appreciation of the renminbi has been relatively modest。The yuan has appreciated against the dollar this year4.5%The dollar index fell4.3%The euro rose against the dollar5.9%The yen rose against the dollar4.1%。In comparison, the performance of RMB is basically consistent with that of major currencies。
Under the combined action of internal and external factors, the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to maintain two-way fluctuations and basic stability at a reasonable and balanced level in the future。As we can see, the smart market can always see both sides of the coin, fully recognizing the domestic economic fundamentals to support the RMB exchange rate, but also highly concerned about various external instability and uncertainty factors may keep the RMB up and down, two-way fluctuations。At present, the factors discussed more by market institutions include:
First, although the US dollar has weakened in the long run, the current global economic recovery prospects are not clear, and the short-term trend of the US dollar is uncertain。Second, market institutions have also observed that the improvement of the global epidemic in the future will not only help increase China's external demand, but also help expand imports。At the same time, the relaxation of entry and exit restrictions will also promote the recovery of cross-border travel and study demand of Chinese residents。Therefore, it is not easy for China to run a large current account surplus。Third, considering both pros and cons, the current frequent international protectionism, unilateralism and geopolitical conflicts will increase uncertainties in the international financial market。In fact, on closer inspection, we find that some indicators also reflect market views。For example, from the domestic risk reversal indicator that can reflect exchange rate expectations (bullish dollar/Put yuan options and put dollar/The volatility difference of bullish renminbi options)10Month-to-month average0.97%, remained positive, well below2016early3.03%，在2018年5In October, the yuan was in a period of appreciation, and the value was0.03%。current0.97%It is at the middle level in recent years, which also shows that the market's expectations for the medium and long-term RMB exchange rate are tending to be neutral。
This is what I want to share with you about exchange rate changes。Safe will further cooperate with the People's Bank of China to continue to deepen the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level。What we can do more is to promote two-way opening of the financial market and improve the facilitation of cross-border trade and investment. While making the domestic market more attractive to foreign investment, we will also provide more opportunities and conditions for domestic investors to allocate overseas financial assets and facilitate their formation“bicirculating”The new development pattern, service economic development。
I would like to take this opportunity to say again that in the context of the increased flexibility of the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, I hope that friends from the media will continue to convey that enterprises should actively prevent exchange rate risks and establish a risk-neutral concept。Since this year, the domestic options market1The average term implied volatility level is5%The fluctuation between the high and low price is7.5%RMB exchange rate flexibility is relatively strong。In the face of exchange rate fluctuations, enterprises should strengthen the awareness of risk prevention。First, we need to change the unilateral linear thinking that the RMB is either rising or falling, and establish an awareness of two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate。Second, it is necessary to conduct reasonable and prudent transactions, do a good risk assessment, and carry out appropriate hedging of exchange rate exposure。Third, it is necessary to control currency mismatch as much as possible and rationally arrange the currency structure of assets and liabilities。Fourth, do not use exchange rate hedging tools as speculative arbitrage tools and take unnecessary risks。This is in response to your exchange rate question. We would like to convey to the majority of enterprises with the help of media friends that against the backdrop of increased two-way volatility of RMB, we should actively guard against exchange rate risks and establish a risk-neutral concept。
CNBC记者:
Recently, some economists have noticed that the foreign exchange reserves of some banks and other institutions have increased, and they would like to know the reasons behind this？What are the relevant rules of the Foreign Exchange Bureau that they should be aware of？谢谢。
Wang Chunying:
You mentioned the accumulation of some institutional reserves, I think you may be referring to the bank's foreign exchange settlement position。In the past, we also talked to the media reporters present about the main factors affecting the supply and demand of foreign exchange, including the settlement and sale of foreign exchange positions by banks。The bank's foreign exchange settlement and sale position is mainly affected by two aspects, one is the flat trading of the customer's foreign exchange settlement and sale transaction, and the other is the bank's independent increase and decrease of the position。In addition, foreign institutions can also buy and sell foreign exchange in the domestic interbank market. Because foreign entities need to do part of currency exchange to carry out cross-border investment and financing activities, there are these foreign trading entities in the foreign exchange market at home and abroad, and they are either the supply side or the demand side。
When it comes to the exchange rate risk that banks should increase their positions, banks' foreign exchange positions are also passively held by customers through forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange and option flat trading, and banks do not bear exchange rate risk in this part of the position。Second, the positions actively held by banks, which are small in scale, are professional institutions with strong risk management capabilities and sufficient experience in dealing with exchange rate risks。
I mainly answer these。If you have any other questions, you can contact the press staff present today after the press conference, or give you further answers through text and other means。
China Media GroupCGTN记者:
China's current account is in surplus, portfolio investment inflows, when foreign exchange reserves did not increase。Some believe that this indicates that there is a large outflow of some projects。What do you think of the situation？
Wang Chunying:
This is an understandable observation。For a long time in the past, China's international balance of payments showed double surplus, foreign exchange reserves grew relatively fast, current account surplus and non-reserve financial account surplus, so foreign exchange reserves increased。There have also been cases where the current account is in surplus, the non-reserve financial account is in deficit, and foreign exchange reserves have declined。Therefore, we are very vigilant about the deficit items。In recent years, a new balance model has emerged in China's balance of payments, with foreign exchange reserves remaining basically stable and no longer changing with changes in major items of the balance of payments。This will require a new understanding of the new balance of payments model。My colleagues and I have also sorted out this problem to give an explanation to friends who have observed this problem。
First, in recent years, China's balance of payments has formed an overall pattern of independent balance, and its reserve assets have remained basically stable。In this context, the current account and the non-reserve financial account show a mirror relationship, with the current account showing a surplus and the non-reserve financial account showing a deficit.On the contrary, the current account deficit and the non-reserve financial account will show a surplus, and the overall balance of international payments will be balanced。The balance of payments transactions of various players in the market have been in and out, and they have achieved an independent balance. There is no need for large-scale absorption or release of reserve assets, and there will be no significant changes in reserve assets。
Second, under the pattern of independent balance of international payments, there are surplus items and deficit items, but not all deficit items necessarily mean risks。In the first half of this year, the overall current account was in surplus, while the non-reserve financial account was in deficit。When we analyze this deficit on a case-by-case basis, there is no deleveraging of external debt, and all external debt items, such as foreign direct investment, portfolio investment and other investment, are net inflows。The deficit is mainly due to the growth of various types of Chinese overseas investment, indicating that market entities have increased their assets overseas。Assets mainly refer to, first, the increase in foreign securities investment by domestic residents, which reflects the need for diversified asset allocation, mainly investing in Hong Kong stocks, and we have also analyzed the data of Hong Kong stock purchases。Second, outbound direct investment on the whole increased in a rational and orderly manner, but did not occur2016Annual increase40%Many cases。Third, the increase in foreign deposits and loans of banks is mainly due to the sufficient domestic foreign exchange liquidity. Foreign exchange liquidity brought about by current account or direct investment is released by banks through foreign deposits and loans。Careful analysis, we can say that although some items are in deficit, it does not mean that it is a risk。
Finally, I would like to say to you that the internal structure of the current balance of payments is relatively reasonable and desirable to China。How to explain？In recent years, since China's international balance of payments entered a period of independent balance, the current account has been basically balanced with a slight surplus。This determines that the overall structure of China's balance of payments is sound。In this context, cross-border capital flows are also relatively balanced。On the one hand, the opening of financial markets absorbs foreign capital inflows, and on the other hand, overseas assets or foreign exchange assets held by domestic entities increase simultaneously。Looking ahead, China's economy is in the process of structural adjustment, optimization and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, which will play a very good role in supporting the basic balance of the current account。The balance of payments has the basis and conditions to maintain a reasonable and consensual situation。That's the main thing we want to talk to you about。谢谢。
Hong Kong Economic Herald reporter:
The CPC Central Committee and The State Council attach great importance to the development and construction of the capital, and have made major decisions and deployments to deepen a new round of comprehensive pilot projects to expand the opening up of Beijing's service industry, and build a national comprehensive demonstration zone to expand the opening up of the service industry and a Beijing Pilot Free Trade Zone。What are the considerations and measures of Foreign Exchange in supporting Beijing's construction of a comprehensive demonstration zone for expanding the opening up of the service industry and the cross-border trade and direct investment of the Beijing Free Trade Zone？谢谢。
Wang Chunying:
Your question is specific to the Beijing area, and I have compiled some information to share with you。Regarding the foreign exchange management policy of the pilot free trade Zone, it is not only Beijing。Safe has always earnestly implemented the requirements of the Party Central Committee and The State Council on the development of the Free trade zone. We have a good grasp of the direction of the construction of the free trade zone and introduced a series of policies, including: First, banks in the free trade zone can handle the procedures of foreign exchange purchase, payment, collection and settlement of current items in accordance with the three principles of exhibition。Second, the FTZ goods trade foreign exchange management classification level isAIt is not necessary to open an export income to be verified account, and the foreign exchange income from trade in goods can be directly entered into the foreign exchange account under the current account。Third, the conditions for the review of electronic documents for trade in goods have been relaxed, and enterprises registered and operating in the free trade zone can choose banks in the area to review electronic documents when handling foreign exchange receipts and payments for trade in goods。2019Since last year, the SAFE has introduced a number of measures to optimize business handling or simplify processes and improve the efficiency of cross-border trade fund settlement。
Foreign exchange management policies in pilot areas for innovative development of trade in services。We adhere to the management principles of authenticity, facilitation and risk prevention, adhere to the concept of facilitating small amounts and standardizing large amounts, and effectively facilitate the handling of foreign exchange business in areas with innovative development of trade in services。Under normal circumstances, the foreign exchange revenue and expenditure of service trade in various regions can be handled directly in the bank, and there are no policy obstacles in the field of foreign exchange management。
As for the innovative measures you mentioned in the Beijing Free Trade Zone, first of all, in terms of cross-border trade, we will support the facilitation of cross-border foreign exchange payments in the Beijing Free Trade Zone。Support qualified foreign trade comprehensive service enterprises to provide cross-border e-commerce goods trade foreign exchange comprehensive services。The study explored the exchange settlement mode of cross-border transfer of physical assets, and improved the settlement efficiency of foreign exchange funds。In addition, it provides support for talent employment, including facilitating salary settlement of overseas employees of Chinese-funded institutions in Beijing, facilitating foreign exchange purchase and settlement of overseas high-end talents for personal maintenance and accompanying children's studies。Second, in terms of direct investment, we will promote the facilitation of overseas investment by domestic institutions。We are studying the qualified overseas Limited partner system (QFLPPilot reform programs to further expand the scope of investment, simplify registration procedures, facilitate capital exchange, explore cross-border investment and financing management models for private equity investment funds, and continue to support Beijing in attracting more global first-class investment institutions to settle down。Third, in terms of external debt, we will continue to implement external debt facilitation measures。We will further upgrade the foreign debt facilitation pilot policies in Zhongguancun National Innovation Demonstration Zone, and help the construction of Beijing's science and Innovation center。Relevant implementation rules have been issued, and qualified high-tech enterprises in the region can enjoy them500External debt facilitation quota of US $10,000。On this basis, the facilitation of foreign debt of non-financial enterprises in Haidian Park will be specially expanded500$10,000 goes up to1000$10,000, for now19A high-tech enterprise to enjoy the policy dividend。We will innovate ways of managing corporate external debt。The transaction link has been merged, the one-time foreign debt registration has been piloted, and the management requirements for the case-by-case registration of pilot enterprises have been abolished。We will carry out a pilot program of cross-border transfer of non-performing assets in Beijing, allowing the Beijing Financial Assets Exchange to carry out cross-border transfer of non-performing assets of banks, further revitalize non-performing assets of banks, and better support the development of the real economy。谢谢。
Correspondent for Market News International:
There are reports that the SAFE recently planned to add new units in batchesQDII额度。What are the policy considerations？Will it further relax restrictions on overseas investment by domestic institutions and individuals？谢谢。
Wang Chunying:
关于QDIIThere have been some recent reports on the issue of quota issuance。In order to further promote the establishment of a new two-way opening-up pattern in the financial sector and meet the reasonable needs of the domestic market for allocating overseas assets or investing overseas, we have recently launched a new roundQDIIThe issuance of the quota is also a positive measure for the SAFE to consider deepening the reform and opening up of cross-border securities investment。This also shows that we have firm determination and confidence in achieving steady economic growth and properly responding to external shocks or changes in the external environment。
关于QDIIQuota issuance, we will also regularly publish the latest quota issuance situation on the Internet, the media should also know, on the website of the Bureau of Foreign Exchange can find which types of institutions have been increasedQDII额度。
As for your second question, we are also exploring more forms of openness and convenience policies for cross-border two-way investment, so what you are concerned about is under our consideration。谢谢。
Reporter from China News Service:
Recently, the SAFE has introduced a number of capital market opening measures. What are the main considerations？What new measures will be taken in the next step, and how to strike a balance between promoting reform and preventing risks？谢谢。
Wang Chunying:
Since the beginning of this year, SAFE has earnestly implemented the central Committee's decision“六稳”“六保”The work deployment, according to the construction of domestic and international“bicirculating”The new development pattern requires actively promoting the two-way opening of the capital market together with relevant departments。You asked about the measures, I would like to share with you the following:
First, to facilitate foreign investors to participate in the domestic capital market, we have continued to promote the opening up of the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets and improved market-based trading mechanisms。For example in5In October, we eliminated qualified Foreign Institutional investors (QFII)QFII/RQFIIInvestment quota approval, and relaxed the number of custody restrictions, but also optimize and facilitate the repatriation of relevant funds procedures。9In October, it issued a joint document with the People's Bank of China and the CSRC to unifyQFII和RQFIITo reduce the entry threshold and expand the scope of investment, and further facilitate overseas investors in the domestic securities investment operation。Recently, we will work with the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to unify the opening policies of the interbank bond market and the exchange bond market, simplify access management, introduce multi-level custody, optimize the remittance of funds, establish and improve the foreign exchange risk management mechanism for overseas institutions, relax and optimize third-party exchange transactions, and create a more friendly and convenient environment。This is a move to attract foreign investors。
Second, as I just said, we have a two-way opening-up policy. In terms of facilitating domestic investors, we have recently launched a new round of measures to better meet the global asset allocation needs of domestic investorsQDIICredit issued. Here we go30More than a billion dollars involved18Institutions, including both fund companies, securities companies, trust companies, financial subsidiaries, etc., which is also a new measure of two-way opening。
As for the next step, we adhere to a guiding ideology and principle, and continue to steadily promote the opening up of the capital market by deepening reform, expanding opening-up, and serving the entity。For example, we will further open up the bond market and continue to issue bonds in batchesQDIIQuota, explore the reform of cross-border investment management of private equity investment funds, and steadily expand the connectivity of the capital market。We will also work with relevant departments to study and promote the integration of capital market opening policies and channels, gradually shift from the current model of pipeline, sub-market and regional opening up to a unified institutional and rule-based opening up, and make cross-border investment and financing transactions more convenient。When we were pushing forward reform and opening up，It also takes into account the stage of economic development, financial market conditions and financial stability，We will properly grasp the direction, pace and focus of reform and opening up，Make financial supervision capacity and financial openness to match，Consider designing risk prevention, supervision and regulation mechanisms in the process of opening up，We hope that our reform and opening up will proceed smoothly and orderly。We had those considerations in mind when we were doing it。谢谢。
Shou Xiaoli:
Please go ahead and ask the last two questions。
Central radio reporter:
2020年6At the end of the month, the balance of China's all-caliber foreign debt exceeded2Trillion dollars, how to view the growth and trend of our foreign debt？谢谢。
Wang Chunying:
Foreign debt has always been a concern of the media, academia and the public in foreign exchange management。We will continue to closely monitor changes in the structure and size of external debt and make timely risk assessments and judgments。On the whole, in recent years, the growth of China's foreign debt has remained stable, its structure is reasonably optimized, its stability is gradually enhanced, and the repayment risk is relatively low on the whole. This reflects the objective needs of China's economic development, the diversification of financing channels, the effect of foreign debt facilitation policies, and the recognition of the Chinese market by international investors。
Since the beginning of this year, China's foreign debt growth has continued this development trend, from the growth rate, the scale of foreign debt growth in the first half of this year3.7%，2018年4Since the quarterly growth rate2%Around, so the first half3.7%The growth rate is stable。Judging from the matching degree between foreign debt and economic size,2017Since last year, the balance of external debt has been compared withGDPIn proportion to14%到15%The range is consistent with total economic growth。From a structural point of view, the growth of foreign debt in recent years is mainly due to the opening up of China's bond market, and foreign investors, mainly foreign central banks, increased their holdings of domestic government bonds。From this point of view, these debts are RMB bonds, and the related investments are relatively stable。
In the future, under the influence of policy and market factors, foreign debt will continue to develop steadily。First of all, from the policy perspective, the opening-up policy and facilitation measures continue to show their effect, which is conducive to the steady growth of external debt。On the one hand, with the continuous opening up of the capital market, international investors have further improved their recognition of China's bond market。We observed that this year9In October, Chinese government bonds were explicitly included in the FTSE Russell World Government Bond Index, China's monetary policy remains normalized, the domestic and foreign interest rate spreads remain relatively high, and foreign investors will steadily increase their holdings of domestic bonds。On the other hand, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange continue to promote the reform of foreign exchange financing facilitation, expand the main financing space, and support enterprises to make good use of both domestic and international markets for efficient financing。Secondly, from the perspective of the market, although external liquidity is relatively abundant, it is still very rational for enterprises to borrow against the background of two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate。Therefore, the external debt will remain rational, stable and orderly。
I would like to take this opportunity to brief you on the issue of foreign debt. When it comes to the security and solvency of foreign debt, some people compare foreign debt with the size of foreign exchange reserves。In fact, foreign debt borrowed by various domestic entities is not necessarily repaid by foreign exchange reserves。The security of foreign debt can be measured by many common international indicators。
China has both external debts and considerable external assets。At the same time of the increase of foreign debt, foreign assets are also increasing, and the accumulated foreign assets in recent years are more, that is, our country presents foreign net assets。Up to this year6At the end of the month, China's external assets7.9Trillion dollars, external liabilities5.7Trillion dollars, net worth2.2Trillion dollars。From the perspective of the main body, the foreign debt of the private sector, such as banks and enterprises, is included in the overall foreign debt1.8Trillions of dollars, which corresponds to foreign assets2.4Trillions of dollars, so the assets of the private sector are greater than the liabilities。And from the perspective of the balance sheet structure,7.9Trillions of dollars in foreign assets3.1Trillion dollars in reserve assets,5.7Close to a trillion dollars in external debt3One trillion US dollars is foreign direct investment, which is a relatively stable liability。
Some may say that it is possible for a business to have liabilities but no assets。Under the role of market-oriented adjustment mechanism, the external assets and liabilities of market entities can be effectively adjusted or matched。For example, if an enterprise needs to repay its foreign debts, it can use its own foreign exchange on the one hand; if its own foreign exchange is insufficient, it can use the foreign exchange balances of other institutions under the adjustment of market mechanisms。Therefore, through reasonable prices, enterprises can buy foreign exchange in the market, and realize the effective adjustment and matching of private sector assets and liabilities。
Observe the security indicators of foreign debt, one is the debt ratio of foreign debt, the international security line is lower than20%Our country's rate at the end of last year was14%。Second, the foreign debt ratio, the international security line is lower100%The data of our country are78%。Third, the debt service ratio, the international security line is lower than20%Our country is7%。Fourth, short-term foreign debt is lower than foreign exchange reserves, and international security requirements are lower100%Our country is39%。This is a pure liquidity indicator, indicating that China's foreign exchange reserves can provide sufficient liquidity when necessary, but it does not mean that various entities will have to use foreign exchange reserves to pay foreign debts。As mentioned above, the private sector has a large number of foreign exchange assets, and under the market-oriented regulation mechanism, the supply and demand of foreign exchange among market entities can be effectively adjusted21324About one-third of the $100 million in foreign debt is in yuan, which also needs to be taken into account。Of course, we will continue to closely monitor relevant changes and actively guard against risks of cross-border capital flows。谢谢。
Economic Daily reporter:
Just mentioned the financial opening up, I am more concerned about the current pace of China's financial opening up and the global low interest rate environment, whether China will face a large inflow？How does SAFE ensure the smooth flow of cross-border capital？谢谢。
Wang Chunying:
This problem is of wide concern to the society。At present, the major developed economies are implementing very loose monetary policies, which is different from2008The external environment after the international financial crisis is somewhat similar, but the internal environment affecting China's cross-border capital flow has undergone relatively great changes。On the whole, our internal conditions are conducive to balanced cross-border capital flows in China。
First, China's international balance of payments, especially its current account, has moved from a high surplus to a basic balance。Historically, China's current account surplus has been as high as that of ChinaGDPThe ratio of2007It peaked in 2010 and then fell back to the overall level2011postannual2%Around, the first half of this year continued to maintain a reasonable and balanced range。The evolution of the current account is the result of the transformation and upgrading of the domestic economy and the optimization of the economic structure, which reflects the transformation of the Chinese economy to the domestic large circulation。In recent years, a basically balanced balance of payments pattern has taken shape, and this pattern, influenced by structural factors, will not easily change。The current account of the balance of payments has shifted from a high surplus to a basic balance, which is an obvious change influenced by internal conditions or internal environment。
Secondly, there is another internal change, that is, the two-way opening of the financial market。Two-way opening-up will help expand channels for balanced cross-border capital flows。While facilitating and attracting foreign capital to invest in China's domestic market, we are also opening up and facilitating domestic investors to participate in overseas investment and global asset allocation。Therefore, the opening up of these two aspects is conducive to broadening the channels for balanced cross-border capital flows。For example, under securities investment, the net increase of foreign investors in domestic securities in recent years has steadily increased.2018、2019年和2020The first three quarters remained at1200亿-1300In the hundreds of millions of dollars。We invest in foreign securities,2014年11Month to this year9At the end of the month, Hong Kong stock Connect“南下”Cumulative outflow of funds1.3One trillion yuan。Therefore, China's opening-up is two-way, capital flows are also two-way, and two-way opening-up of financial markets will help broaden the channels for balanced cross-border capital flows。
Finally, the market regulation mechanism is more mature and rational。In recent years, the formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate has been continuously improved, the two-way fluctuation of the exchange rate has become more flexible, the exchange rate expectations of market players have become more rational and moderately differentiated, there is no very consistent expectation of unilateral rise and depreciation, and short-term arbitrage funds have been significantly reduced。In this context, market transactions are mainly based on actual needs, hedging risks and asset preservation and appreciation。This kind of rational transaction is conducive to maintaining the smooth, reasonable and balanced flow of cross-border funds。The exchange rate can play a role as an automatic stabilizer of the macroeconomic and international balance of payments. Even if cross-border capital inflows increase in some periods and through some channels, it will not change the overall balance of international payments in the medium and long term。
These are the answers to your questions。
Shou Xiaoli:
Thank you, Deputy Director Wang Chunying, and friends from the press。That's all for today's press conference。
